Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical implied yields (2063% for Yes, 3625% for No) reflect the market's dysfunction rather than genuine pricing, and with only 13 days to expiry and a 15¢ spread, any trade execution would face severe slippage. The Cliff Risk Index of 1 combined with zero liquidity suggests this contract may fail to attract meaningful participation before resolution, leaving it effectively non-functional as a prediction market.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above 0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T0.4 yes 100