Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 16¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 16¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 14,424% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction that Italian Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will remain below 0.8%. With just 13 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 5, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than a liquid prediction market.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above 0.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T0.8 yes 100