Will Brett Guthrie be the Republican nominee for KY-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Brett Guthrie be the Republican nominee for KY-02?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing in near-certainty (99%) that Brett Guthrie will secure the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, with extremely thin liquidity at just $3,276 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in near-certainty (99%) that Brett Guthrie will secure the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, with extremely thin liquidity at just $3,276 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 4-cent spread and wildly asymmetric implied yields (3.4% for Yes vs. 1226% for No) reflect the market's extreme confidence, though the 19 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful tail risk of late-moving challengers or unexpected political developments over the 566-day timeframe. The 3.4% annualized yield on the Yes side offers minimal compensation for capital lock-up, making this contract primarily valuable as a hedge rather than a yield opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Brett Guthrie wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 KY-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKYPRIMARY-02R26-BGUT yes 100