Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican nominee for KY-06
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 91% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
91%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
532 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic nominee for KY-06
Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic nominee for KY-06?: Zach Dembo
KXKYPRIMARY-06D26-ZDEM
Cluster 2
Will Maria Rodriguez be the Republican nominee for KY-03
Will Maria Rodriguez be the Republican nominee for KY-03?: Maria Rodriguez
KXKYPRIMARY-03R26-MROD
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Adam Perez Arquette will secure the Republican Party's nomination for Kentucky's 6th congressional district. The 61% probability reflects moderate confidence, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether he faces significant primary opposition or encounters organizational obstacles. Key factors driving this level include the strength of alternative candidates in the district, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican leadership, and recent polling data from district-level surveys. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, market participants are pricing in a scenario where Arquette has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage, implying the nomination remains genuinely competitive.
- ›Recent polling data from KY-06 Republican primary showing Arquette's standing relative to named opponents and undecided voters
- ›Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Arquette versus primary challengers in the most recent FEC filing periods
- ›Endorsement patterns from Kentucky Republican Party officials, state legislators, and national party figures
- ›Candidate field composition—whether other viable Republican candidates have formally entered or are actively campaigning
- ›Early voting or preference data from local party surveys or internal campaign polls that became public
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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