Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic nominee for KY-06?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic nominee for KY-06?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $447 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $447 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 228.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic artifact of thin markets where small positions can create outsized percentage returns, though the risk-adjusted yield of 114% suggests genuine uncertainty about Dembo's nomination prospects. With 566 days until expiry and an 8¢ spread, this contract lacks the depth needed for confident directional bets, though the neutral regime score indicates no obvious market dislocations.
Resolution rules
If Zach Dembo wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 KY-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKYPRIMARY-06D26-ZDEM yes 100