Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican nominee for KY-06?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Adam Perez Arquette be the Republican nominee for KY-06?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,955 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around Arquette's nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,955 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around Arquette's nomination prospects. The 18¢ price implies a modest 18% probability, but the asymmetric yield structure—365.7% on Yes versus 11.4% on No—indicates the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty about candidate field composition or Arquette's viability in a crowded primary. The recent 2-cent price decline over seven days combined with a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market has settled into a relatively stable equilibrium, though the 566-day timeframe to expiry leaves considerable room for candidate announcements or primary dynamics to shift sentiment.
Resolution rules
If Adam Perez Arquette wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 KY-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKYPRIMARY-06R26-AARQ yes 100