Will Steve Scalise be the Republican nominee for LA-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Steve Scalise be the Republican nominee for LA-01?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extremely high implied probability.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extremely high implied probability. The massive 1010.9% implied yield on the No side and 505% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or that traders are unwilling to back the contrarian position even at favorable odds. With 566 days until expiry and a modest 16 cliff risk index, there's substantial time for the political landscape to shift, yet the market has barely moved (95¢ to 94¢ in seven days), indicating either strong consensus or simple neglect of this low-liquidity contract.
Resolution rules
If Steve Scalise wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 LA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLAPRIMARY-01R26-SSCA yes 100