Will Jessee Fleenor be the Democratic nominee for LA-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Jessee Fleenor be the Democratic nominee for LA-05?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Fleenor's nomination odds have declined sharply from 37¢ to 29¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or emerging competition in the LA-05 Democratic primary race.
Analysis
Fleenor's nomination odds have declined sharply from 37¢ to 29¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or emerging competition in the LA-05 Democratic primary race. The 158% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 566-day time horizon, indicating the market prices in substantial uncertainty and tail risk around a relatively unlikely outcome. Liquidity remains thin with only $2,329.81 open interest and modest 24-hour volume of $3,581.57, so larger positions could move the price meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If Jessee Fleenor wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 LA-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLAPRIMARY-05D26-JFLE yes 100