Will the margin of victory for John Fleming in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the margin of victory for John Fleming in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be bet.... This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ Yes price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 1757.5% implied yield.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ Yes price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 1757.5% implied yield. The 5¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract's notional value, suggesting minimal market confidence and difficulty in price discovery for a Louisiana primary event still 395 days away. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price movement indicate this contract has attracted virtually no trader attention, so any position would face significant execution risk.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for John Fleming in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLARSENMOV-26MAY16-JFLE-P1 yes 100