Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 16, 2027. 390 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 575.3% and 15.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	575.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	288%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary be above 9%?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions