What is the current probability for "Inflation surge in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 14, 2027. 299 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Inflation surge in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 366.6% and 40.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Inflation surge in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Inflation surge in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Inflation surge in 2026?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing February 14, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility (356% realized vol) with a sharp 19% price rally over seven days (27¢ to 32¢), yet liquidity remains thin at just $60 daily volume against $40k open interest, creating potential execution challenges.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 26/32¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $143.75·OI $41,290.63·Closes Feb 14, 2027·299d remaining

KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5

7-day price269 snapshots · 16 regime

49¢26¢ current

Apr 813¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme volatility (356% realized vol) with a sharp 19% price rally over seven days (27¢ to 32¢), yet liquidity remains thin at just $60 daily volume against $40k open interest, creating potential execution challenges. The 244% implied yield on the Yes side is notably aggressive given the 36% probability and 304-day timeframe, suggesting either significant tail risk pricing or speculative positioning, though the neutral regime score (0.568) and low info arrival rate (0.4/h) indicate limited fundamental catalysts are currently driving the market. The 5¢ spread and cliff risk index of 2 warrant caution for larger position entries.

Resolution rules

If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 366.6%

IY (No) 40.7%

Adj IY 367%

CRI 3

RV 471%

VR 2.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	366.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	40.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	367%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	471%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:14 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →