Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 in 24-hour volume and a massive 20¢ spread, making the 1¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 in 24-hour volume and a massive 20¢ spread, making the 1¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The implied probability of Starmer leaving office within 43 days is extraordinarily low at 1%, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 16,260% annualized yield, suggesting either deep mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for tail-risk exposure on a highly unlikely event. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days indicates some shift in sentiment, though the negligible open interest and low volume mean any meaningful position would face severe slippage.
Resolution rules
If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUN01 yes 100