Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Dignitas League of Legends match?

88¢

Bid/Ask 81/88¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $116.07·OI $168.07·Closes May 3, 2026·16d remaining

KXLOLGAME-26APR191900TLDIG-TL

7-day price65 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 88¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Team Liquid's victory, yet the extreme implied yield asymmetry (10,376% for No vs. 500% for Yes) signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity on the No side with only $162.44 open interest. The 7-day rally from 69¢ to 88¢ combined with exceptionally high realized volatility (5,794%) and low 24-hour volume ($110.44) suggests thin order books and potential for sharp reversals if new information arrives before the April 19 match date.

Resolution rules

If Team Liquid wins the LCS 2026: Team Liquid vs. Dignitas League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 607.8%

IY (No) 8601.7%

Adj IY 7622%

CRI 4

RV 5698%

VR 6.96

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	607.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8601.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7622%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5698%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.96	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 12:21:23 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 11:53:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLOLGAME-26APR191900TLDIG-TL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →