Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1218% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 201 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity is driving the 12¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1218% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 201 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity is driving the 12¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment. The $11,755 open interest against just $6 in 24-hour volume indicates this is a low-liquidity contract where the tight 2¢ spread masks the difficulty of actually executing trades at posted prices. With 468% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this contract exhibits high uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing, particularly as primary season approaches and actual incumbent challenges materialize.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-4 yes 100