Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will exactly” vs “Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 3
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-3
Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 4
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-4
Will exactly 5 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 5
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-5
Will exactly 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 6
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6
Cluster 2
Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026
Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more
KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6T
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that more than 6 House Republicans will be defeated in primary elections during the 2026 cycle. Primary losses among majority-party members typically occur when sitting members face strong challengers from their own party, often due to ideological divides, redistricting changes, or anti-incumbent sentiment. The 16% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Primary elections occur at varying dates through summer 2026, with early contests already underway in some states and major primaries scheduled through August. The outcome depends on factors including the strength of challenger recruitment within Republican ranks, the degree of party fragmentation over key policy issues, and whether any high-profile incumbent vulnerabilities emerge. Historical context shows that 6+ primary losses for the majority party in a single cycle is relatively rare, which partly explains the low current probability.
- ›Primary election schedule and results through August 2026, with early-state contests in March-May determining baseline primary competitiveness
- ›Number and quality of primary challengers recruited against sitting House Republicans, particularly those in competitive general seats or with controversial records
- ›Degree of intra-party conflict within the House Republican conference, including any formal challenge networks or ideological factional organizing
- ›Redistricting effects and demographic changes in individual districts that could unexpectedly shift primary electorates favoring challengers
- ›Historical trend data: the number of House majority-party primary losses in 2018 and 2022 cycles as baseline comparisons for 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 244↑11pp24→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 245↑10pp2→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 253↑8pp11→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 223↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 257 or more↑6pp5→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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