Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The Yes side offers an extreme 424.5% implied yield on a 34¢ price with over 201 days to expiry, suggesting the market may be underpricing primary challenge risk to House Republicans.
Analysis
The Yes side offers an extreme 424.5% implied yield on a 34¢ price with over 201 days to expiry, suggesting the market may be underpricing primary challenge risk to House Republicans. Liquidity is thin at $609.99 daily volume against $42k open interest, creating potential execution challenges and making the 4¢ spread meaningful for larger positions. The 1766% realized volatility and 5.48 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced wild swings, though the recent price stability (29¢ to 30¢ over seven days) and neutral regime suggest current positioning may be consolidating ahead of primary season acceleration.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is above 6, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6T yes 100