Will Shelby Campbell be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Shelby Campbell be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $389.62, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $389.62, making the 45¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 1226% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag typical of thin markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns, and the 7¢ spread represents 15.6% of the current price. With 566 days until expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, there's substantial time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions suggest this contract is best treated as illiquid and speculative rather than a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Shelby Campbell wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMI13D-26-SCAM yes 100