What is the current probability for "Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 8, 2026. 231 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3798.5% and 6.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 8, 2026. This is an extremely illiquid market with only $16 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $16·Closes Dec 8, 2026·231d remaining

KXMLBALHAARON-26-BROO

Analysis

4d ago

This is an extremely illiquid market with only $16 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The asymmetric implied yields—3,719% for Yes versus 6.5% for No—reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests significant uncertainty in how this will resolve. With 236 days to expiry, there's ample time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions make this unsuitable for serious trading.

Resolution rules

If Brent Rooker wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3798.5%

IY (No) 6.6%

Adj IY 1899%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3798.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1899%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:20:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-BROO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →