What is the current probability for "Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 8, 2026. 231 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3798.5% and 6.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 8, 2026. The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Trout to win the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, though the 3717.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful asymmetric upside if he returns to MVP-caliber performance after recent injuries.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $311.25·Closes Dec 8, 2026·231d remaining

KXMLBALHAARON-26-MTRO

Analysis

4d ago

The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Trout to win the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award, though the 3717.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful asymmetric upside if he returns to MVP-caliber performance after recent injuries. With only $311.25 in open interest and a tight 4¢ spread, liquidity is minimal, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid betting market. The 236-day timeframe provides ample runway for Trout's health status and 2026 season performance to materially shift market pricing.

Resolution rules

If Mike Trout wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3798.5%

IY (No) 6.6%

Adj IY 1899%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3798.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1899%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:20:20 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:17 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-MTRO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →