Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing December 14, 2026. This market prices Aprilia at an exceptionally high 87% championship probability despite zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,168, suggesting the price may reflect stale information or limited liquidity rather than active consensus.
Analysis
This market prices Aprilia at an exceptionally high 87% championship probability despite zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $1,168, suggesting the price may reflect stale information or limited liquidity rather than active consensus. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—40.2% for Yes versus 568.5% for No—indicates severe mispricing, as backing the heavy favorite offers minimal return while the underdog position carries outsized upside, a dynamic typically corrected by arbitrageurs in liquid markets. With 242 days to expiration and a recent 2-cent decline from 81¢, the 8-cent spread is wide relative to the contract's notional value, and the 4 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential for sharp repricing as the 2026 season approaches and actual team performance data emerges.
Resolution rules
If Aprilia Racing wins the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOTOGPTEAMS-26-APRI yes 100