Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. The 151% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 18-month timeframe, suggesting either substantial underpricing of Forstag's nomination chances or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in.
Analysis
The 151% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 18-month timeframe, suggesting either substantial underpricing of Forstag's nomination chances or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in. With only $5 in 24-hour volume against $1,738 open interest, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The flat 7-day price action and low Cliff Risk Index (2) indicate stable sentiment, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity and the outsized yield differential between Yes and No outcomes.
Resolution rules
If Sam Forstag wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMT01D-26-SFOR yes 100