Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2026. Christopher Bell's championship odds are priced at a notably depressed 6¢, implying just a 6% probability despite him being an active Cup Series driver, which generates an extreme 2689.7% implied yield on Yes contracts—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or market illiquidity concerns.

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9¢
Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $20.89·OI $85,037.77·Closes Nov 15, 2026·208d remaining
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBEL
7-day price59 snapshots · 27 regime
8¢7¢ current
Apr 125¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

Christopher Bell's championship odds are priced at a notably depressed 6¢, implying just a 6% probability despite him being an active Cup Series driver, which generates an extreme 2689.7% implied yield on Yes contracts—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or market illiquidity concerns. The $84,276 open interest against only $1,000 in 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity with a wide 4¢ spread, making these attractive odds potentially difficult to execute at scale. With 213 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative contrarian opportunity, though the high cliff risk index of 16 warrants caution about potential adverse resolution conditions.

Resolution rules

If Christopher Bell wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2333.8%
IY (No) 13.2%
Adj IY 2334%
CRI 13
RV 1670%
VR 2.76
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2333.8%
IY (No)13.2%
Adj IY2334%
CRI13
RV1670%
VR2.76
IAR0.9/h
Overround-0.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:15:23 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBEL yes 100

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