What is the current probability for "Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 15, 2026. 208 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5678.6% and 5.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $62,742 open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $6,765.28·OI $72,009.37·Closes Nov 15, 2026·208d remaining

KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBRI

7-day price4 snapshots · 43 regime

3¢3¢ current

Apr 122¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $62,742 open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 3¢ price implies a highly unlikely outcome for Briscoe to win the championship, though the astronomical 5550% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny contract value rather than genuine edge. With 213 days to expiry and a modest 1¢ spread, the market appears underactive rather than mispriced, warranting caution on both sides given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Chase Briscoe wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5678.6%

IY (No) 5.4%

Adj IY 1893%

CRI 32

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5678.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1893%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:11:06 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBRI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →