Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows significant bearish repricing, with the Yes price collapsing 34 percentage points over seven days (from 57¢ to 41¢), suggesting recent downward momentum in either market sentiment or the Nasdaq-100 itself relative to the 26,799.99 threshold.
Analysis
This market shows significant bearish repricing, with the Yes price collapsing 34 percentage points over seven days (from 57¢ to 41¢), suggesting recent downward momentum in either market sentiment or the Nasdaq-100 itself relative to the 26,799.99 threshold. The 58¢ spread is notably wide relative to the $171 open interest and $125 daily volume, indicating thin liquidity that likely contributed to the sharp price movement and creates execution risk for larger positions. The asymmetric implied yields (203% for Yes versus 98% for No) reflect the market's current bearish lean, though with 259 days to expiry and only a 1 Cliff Risk Index, there's substantial time for mean reversion or renewed volatility.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 26799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T26799.99 yes 100