Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $368 open interest, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $368 open interest, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The No side offers an unusually high 261.8% implied yield versus 75.9% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for tail risk on the downside. The sharp 7-day rally from 51¢ to 65¢ combined with the wide 30¢ spread indicates thin order books and potential for significant slippage on any meaningful trade.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 26999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T26999.99 yes 100