Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27399.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27399.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows a substantial 56% probability that the Nasdaq-100 will trade above 27,399.99 by end-2026, with a notably wide 45¢ spread reflecting minimal liquidity ($650 open interest, zero 24-hour volume).
Analysis
This market shows a substantial 56% probability that the Nasdaq-100 will trade above 27,399.99 by end-2026, with a notably wide 45¢ spread reflecting minimal liquidity ($650 open interest, zero 24-hour volume). The 172.3% annualized yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the risk-adjusted yield of 86%, suggesting the market may be pricing in elevated uncertainty or illiquidity premium rather than directional conviction, particularly given the neutral regime score and the significant price movement from 33¢ to 45¢ over seven days.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 27399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T27399.99 yes 100