Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $359.72 open interest, making the 47¢ price potentially unreliable for directional conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $359.72 open interest, making the 47¢ price potentially unreliable for directional conviction. The 61¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the 230.1% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing or compensation for duration risk over 259 days. Recent price deterioration from 42¢ to 38¢ combined with the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 indicates minimal tail risk, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity and the substantial gap between Yes (230%) and No (86.4%) implied yields.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 27799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T27799.99 yes 100