Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28599.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28599.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $512 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1141% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $512 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1141% implied yield on the Yes side. The 88¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the sharp 7-day decline from 32¢ to 11¢ suggests recent price discovery in a thin market rather than fundamental repricing. With the Nasdaq-100 currently well above the 28,599.99 threshold and 259 days to expiration, the 32% probability appears conservative, though the high cliff risk index (8) warrants caution on execution given minimal liquidity.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 28599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T28599.99 yes 100