Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 24500 and 24999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 24500 and 24999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (24500-24999.99) for the Nasdaq-100 at year-end 2026 at just 6 cents, implying only a 6% probability despite 259 days to expiration.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (24500-24999.99) for the Nasdaq-100 at year-end 2026 at just 6 cents, implying only a 6% probability despite 259 days to expiration. The astronomical 4558.6% implied yield on the Yes side and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest this is either a mispriced novelty contract or lacks meaningful liquidity, with the $16,407.67 open interest concentrated among few positions. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and 2-cent spread indicate significant uncertainty around the exact resolution price, making this more of a speculative bet on precise index targeting than a fundamental market view.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 24500 and 24999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B24750 yes 100