Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25500 and 25999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25500 and 25999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes side is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with an extraordinary 4558.6% implied yield, suggesting the market is pricing in a Nasdaq-100 level well outside the 25500-25999.99 range by end-2026—likely significantly higher given current index levels near 21,000.
Analysis
The Yes side is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with an extraordinary 4558.6% implied yield, suggesting the market is pricing in a Nasdaq-100 level well outside the 25500-25999.99 range by end-2026—likely significantly higher given current index levels near 21,000. The contract has experienced notable downward price movement from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days on modest volume of $1,683.47, indicating thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to sharp repricing if market sentiment shifts. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 32, this narrow band outcome remains highly unlikely but offers asymmetric payoff potential if the Nasdaq-100's growth trajectory moderates substantially.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 25500 and 25999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B25750 yes 100