Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26000 and 26499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26000 and 26499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (26000-26499.99) on the Nasdaq-100 at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability of that specific outcome occurring over 259 days—a reasonable reflection of the tight range's low likelihood.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow 500-point band (26000-26499.99) on the Nasdaq-100 at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability of that specific outcome occurring over 259 days—a reasonable reflection of the tight range's low likelihood. The 3383.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high due to the low price, though this is offset by the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggesting significant binary resolution risk, and the modest $142 daily volume indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if positions are entered or exited. The stable 7-day price action (flat at 4¢) and 2¢ spread suggest the market has found equilibrium, though traders should be cautious given the low open interest relative to the outsized yield promise.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 26000 and 26499.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B26250 yes 100