Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3384% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow 500-point band (roughly 1.8% of current Nasdaq-100 levels) over a 259-day horizon.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 3384% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow 500-point band (roughly 1.8% of current Nasdaq-100 levels) over a 259-day horizon. The stark asymmetry between Yes (3384%) and No (5.9%) yields, combined with zero 24-hour volume and modest $13,468 open interest, indicates illiquidity and potential stale pricing rather than genuine market consensus. The moderate 24 Cliff Risk Index and flat 7-day price action (holding at 4¢) suggest this mispricing may persist due to low trading activity rather than imminent resolution concerns.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27000 and 27499.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27250 yes 100