Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1162.5% and 17.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1162.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	17.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	528%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

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