Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ price implying only 8% probability of Nasdaq-100 exceeding 33,000 by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers a staggering 1,425.9% annualized yield—suggesting significant undervaluation given the index closed around 20,500 recently and would need roughly 60% appreciation over 259 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ price implying only 8% probability of Nasdaq-100 exceeding 33,000 by end-2026, yet the Yes contract offers a staggering 1,425.9% annualized yield—suggesting significant undervaluation given the index closed around 20,500 recently and would need roughly 60% appreciation over 259 days. The realized volatility of 4,358% and cliff risk index of 10 indicate severe pricing instability, while the 7-day rally from 3¢ to 9¢ combined with modest $17,846 daily volume and $36,179 open interest suggests thin liquidity that may not support the extreme yield if smart money begins accumulating the Yes side.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 33000, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000 yes 100