What is the current probability for "Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 76¢ (76% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 8, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 788.6% and 5764.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. The Boston contract has rallied 20% over seven days to 76¢, reflecting strong confidence in a Boston victory, though the 11¢ spread and modest $1,445.71 daily volume suggest thin liquidity for a market closing in just 20 days.

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76¢

Bid/Ask 73/76¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $3,783.29·OI $7,275.85·Closes May 8, 2026·17d remaining

KXNBAGAME-26APR24BOSPHI-BOS

7-day price188 snapshots · 58 regime

83¢73¢ current

Apr 1660¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

The Boston contract has rallied 20% over seven days to 76¢, reflecting strong confidence in a Boston victory, though the 11¢ spread and modest $1,445.71 daily volume suggest thin liquidity for a market closing in just 20 days. The extreme yield asymmetry—543.9% for Yes versus 6095.8% for No—indicates the No side is severely mispriced or facing severe adverse selection, a red flag for market quality. With realized volatility at 1301% and an information arrival rate of 1.4 events per hour, this appears to be an active, volatile market where the cliff risk index of 3 warrants caution on position sizing near expiration.

Resolution rules

If Boston wins the Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 788.6%

IY (No) 5764.7%

Adj IY 5528%

CRI 3

RV 209%

VR 0.74

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	788.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5764.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5528%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	209%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.74	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:49 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR24BOSPHI-BOS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →