Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. Boston at Philadelphia is pricing at just 20¢ despite being scheduled for April 24, 2026—nearly three weeks past the May 8 close date, suggesting the market may be mispricing a game that likely won't resolve before expiry or faces structural ambiguity around rescheduling.
Analysis
Boston at Philadelphia is pricing at just 20¢ despite being scheduled for April 24, 2026—nearly three weeks past the May 8 close date, suggesting the market may be mispricing a game that likely won't resolve before expiry or faces structural ambiguity around rescheduling. The extreme 7674.7% implied yield on Yes positions and 1749% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns, with only $2,606 open interest supporting a market that's seen the Yes price collapse from 14¢ to 19¢ over seven days. The tight 1¢ spread and modest $2,359 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify moves if new information arrives at the current 2.1/hour rate.
Resolution rules
If Philadelphia wins the Game 3: Boston at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR24BOSPHI-PHI yes 100