What is the current probability for "Game 4: Denver at Minnesota Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 54¢ (54% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 18 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 4: Denver at Minnesota Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1710.1% and 2356.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 4: Denver at Minnesota Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 4: Denver at Minnesota Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Game 4: Denver at Minnesota Winner?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 925% and a dramatic 43-cent price surge over seven days, yet liquidity remains thin at just $96.3 in 24-hour volume against $335.69 open interest.

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54¢

Bid/Ask 53/55¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $1,067.2·OI $2,616.24·Closes May 10, 2026·18d remaining

KXNBAGAME-26APR25DENMIN-DEN

7-day price256 snapshots · 44 regime

70¢54¢ current

Apr 1642¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 925% and a dramatic 43-cent price surge over seven days, yet liquidity remains thin at just $96.3 in 24-hour volume against $335.69 open interest. The asymmetric implied yields (1004.6% for Yes vs. 2912.6% for No) suggest the market is pricing in significant tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty about game scheduling or roster changes as we approach the May 10 expiration with 21 days remaining. The 2.78 volatility ratio and 2.9 information arrivals per hour indicate this market is highly reactive to news flow, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with binary event risk.

Resolution rules

If Denver wins the Game 4: Denver at Minnesota professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1710.1%

IY (No) 2356.6%

Adj IY 2269%

CRI 1

RV 236%

VR 0.61

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1710.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2356.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2269%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	236%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:47 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR25DENMIN-DEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →