What is the current probability for "Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 18 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 13590.9% and 303.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity concerns with only $18 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating an extremely wide 34¢ spread that likely reflects pricing uncertainty rather than genuine market consensus.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 12/14¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,126.66·OI $9,649.98·Closes May 9, 2026·18d remaining

KXNBAGAME-26APR25OKCPHX-PHX

7-day price61 snapshots · 38 regime

30¢12¢ current

Apr 188¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity concerns with only $18 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating an extremely wide 34¢ spread that likely reflects pricing uncertainty rather than genuine market consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 11,687% on the Yes side is a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or subject to manipulation given the minimal trading activity and approaching May 9, 2026 expiration just 21 days away. The static 7-day price movement (holding at 14¢) combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests this contract carries substantial execution risk and should be approached with extreme caution due to insufficient liquidity for reliable price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Phoenix wins the Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 13590.9%

IY (No) 303.5%

Adj IY 12546%

CRI 7

RV 926%

VR 0.71

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	13590.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	303.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12546%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	926%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.71	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:18:45 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR25OKCPHX-PHX yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →