Game 4: San Antonio at Portland Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Game 4: San Antonio at Portland Winner?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with an 8164% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting San Antonio is dramatically undervalued at 20¢ despite the contract's 22-day expiration window.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with an 8164% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting San Antonio is dramatically undervalued at 20¢ despite the contract's 22-day expiration window. The 7-day price decline from 20¢ to 17¢ combined with realized volatility of 1188% and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicates severe uncertainty, though the thin $562 daily volume and $776 open interest raise serious liquidity concerns that may explain the outsized yield rather than genuine edge. The market's neutral regime and 0.9 info arrivals per hour suggest this could be a stale or mispriced line awaiting updated sports data or sharper traders to arbitrage.
Resolution rules
If Portland wins the Game 4: San Antonio at Portland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR26SASPOR-POR yes 100