Game 1: Atlanta at New York: Spread

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a staggering 13,652% implied yield versus just 495% for Yes, suggesting the 85¢ price significantly overvalues Atlanta-New York's combined scoring above 201.5 points despite robust 24-hour volume of $70,442. The realized volatility of 1,245% and sharp 27-cent rally over seven days (57¢ to 84¢) indicate substantial recent repricing, though with only 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, the market faces heightened uncertainty near resolution. The 4.18 vol ratio and 0.9/hour information arrival rate suggest active trading around game-related news, making this a high-conviction contrarian opportunity if the market is indeed mispricing the over/under probability.

Resolution rules

If the teams in the Atlanta at New York professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 collectively score more than 201.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade