Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of April?

The 89¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability (89%) that AMZN closes above $230 by April 30, 2026, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 18¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $451k open interest. The asymmetric implied yields (499% for Yes vs. 22,367% for No) indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity on the No side, compounded by the 133% realized volatility and approaching 11-day expiry creating cliff risk. With only 1.1 information arrivals per hour and a neutral regime, this appears to be a stale or consensus-driven market that may not reflect current AMZN fundamentals accurately.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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