Cruzeiro wins by over 1.5 goals?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Cruzeiro priced at 99¢ despite modest liquidity of just $2,053.97 open interest, suggesting the near-certainty pricing may reflect limited order flow rather than genuine conviction. The implied yield for "No" positions reaches an extraordinary 13,765%, indicating the market is pricing in virtually zero probability of Gremio winning or a close result, which seems inconsistent with typical soccer match outcomes where 2+ goal margins occur in roughly 20-30% of matches. With 14 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,256%, this appears to be a thin, potentially manipulated market where a small contrarian bet on "No" could offer substantial asymmetric payoff if the match resolves closer than the pricing suggests.

Resolution rules

If Cruzeiro wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Cruzeiro vs Gremio professional Brasileiro soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade