Will the next President confirm 3 Supreme Court justices?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the next President confirm 3 Supreme Court justices?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. This market prices an extremely low probability (12%) for three Supreme Court confirmations over a full presidential term, implying markets expect either minimal vacancies or significant Senate obstruction—yet the asymmetric implied yield of 292.5% on the Yes side versus 4.5% on the No side suggests substantial mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely low probability (12%) for three Supreme Court confirmations over a full presidential term, implying markets expect either minimal vacancies or significant Senate obstruction—yet the asymmetric implied yield of 292.5% on the Yes side versus 4.5% on the No side suggests substantial mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand. With only $8,899 in open interest and $8 daily volume, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading; the high cliff risk index of 8 indicates significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or late-term volatility. The 1,010-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for market repricing if unexpected vacancies occur, but current pricing heavily discounts the scenario despite historical precedent of multiple confirmations per presidential term.
Resolution rules
If 3 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-3 yes 100