Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices

30-day trend

Analysis

This measures the likelihood that the next U.S. President will confirm exactly two Supreme Court justices during their term. Currently priced at 38%, this outcome trails the expectation of confirming one justice (38%) and leads the scenario of confirming none (30%). The probability depends on two primary drivers: the number of vacancies that occur during the presidential term, which is largely unpredictable based on the sitting justices' ages and health, and the political composition of the Senate, which affects confirmation likelihood and speed. The next presidential election on November 5, 2024 partially resolved who the "next President" is, but uncertainty remains about how many justices will retire or pass away over the coming years, and whether the Senate composition will support rapid confirmations. Major catalysts include announcements of justice retirements and the outcomes of Senate elections in 2026 and 2028.

• ›The median age of current Supreme Court justices and historical retirement patterns will determine vacancy frequency
• ›Senate composition in 2025-2029 directly affects confirmation speed and likelihood, with divided government slowing the process
• ›Multiple simultaneous vacancies are rare; the model's 38% probability suggests markets expect roughly one vacancy as most likely
• ›Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death in 2020 and Ketanji Brown Jackson's 2022 confirmation set recent precedent for turnover rates
• ›The presidential term length and remaining tenure of justices determine the maximum possible confirmations for any given administration

What moved the line

• Sep 171↓15pp27→12¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 172↑8pp29→37¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 180↑6pp26→32¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 190↑3pp32→35¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds