Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
2
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$18
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
940 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the next President confirm
Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?: 1
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-1
Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?: 2
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-2
Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?: 0
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-0
Analysis
This market indicates a 31% chance that the next U.S. President will appoint two Supreme Court justices during their term. The probability reflects expectations about both the likelihood of specific candidates winning the 2024/2028 election and the number of Court vacancies likely to occur during their presidency. The forecast is influenced by two primary factors: the timeline and age of current justices (determining vacancy likelihood) and uncertainty about which candidate will win the presidency, since different presidents may have different confirmation timelines and political circumstances. The main resolution event will occur once the next presidential term begins and any justice retirements or deaths are announced, making the actual number of vacancies during the administration clear.
- ›Current ages and tenure lengths of sitting justices determine expected vacancies over the next four-year term
- ›Market prices for different presidential candidates (Newsom 16¢, Vance 18¢, Rubio 15¢) show no single frontrunner, spreading the probability pool across multiple scenarios
- ›The 31% level implies roughly 2 in 3 odds against two confirmations, suggesting markets view single or zero confirmations as the base case
- ›Senate composition following the next election affects confirmation likelihood for any vacancies that arise
- ›Historical confirmation speeds and partisan dynamics vary significantly by president, impacting how quickly vacancies could be filled during a term
What moved the line
- Jun 221↓16pp41→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 231↑13pp25→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 230↑3pp20→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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