What is the current probability for "Will Jason Cullen be the Republican nominee for NJ-03?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jason Cullen be the Republican nominee for NJ-03?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 126.3% and 33.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jason Cullen be the Republican nominee for NJ-03?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jason Cullen be the Republican nominee for NJ-03?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Jason Cullen be the Republican nominee for NJ-03?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero trading activity with $0 volume and open interest despite a 563-day timeframe, suggesting minimal market interest in Jason Cullen's nomination prospects for NJ-03.

███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

38¢mid

Bid/Ask 34/42¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXNJPRIMARY-03R26-JCUL

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows zero trading activity with $0 volume and open interest despite a 563-day timeframe, suggesting minimal market interest in Jason Cullen's nomination prospects for NJ-03. The 0% price reflects extreme bearishness, though the wide 8¢ spread and asymmetric implied yields (125.9% Yes vs. 33.4% No) indicate thin liquidity and potential mispricing rather than informed consensus. With no recent price movement and low cliff risk, this appears to be a dormant market awaiting either candidate momentum or increased trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Jason Cullen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NJ-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 126.3%

IY (No) 33.5%

Adj IY 63%

CRI 2

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	126.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	63%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:04 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-03R26-JCUL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →