Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Brad Cohen's nomination odds have declined sharply from 14¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or shifting primary dynamics in NJ-12.
Analysis
Brad Cohen's nomination odds have declined sharply from 14¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or shifting primary dynamics in NJ-12. The extremely thin liquidity ($73.65 open interest, $41 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread create significant execution risk, while the 583.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the long 563-day timeframe and low base probability. The high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates substantial uncertainty around nomination timing and candidate viability, making this a speculative position best suited for sophisticated traders comfortable with illiquid markets.
Resolution rules
If Brad Cohen wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-BCOH yes 100