Will Carrie Buck be the Republican nominee for NV-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Carrie Buck be the Republican nominee for NV-01?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The 655.4% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of a dead market where the pricing mechanism has broken down—such extreme yields typically indicate no real trading activity rather than genuine market conviction. With 563 days until expiration and a high Cliff Risk Index of 10, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be treated as non-functional for practical trading purposes.
Resolution rules
If Carrie Buck wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-01R26-CBUC yes 100