Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Settelmeyer is priced at a substantial 70¢ with over 18 months until the November 2027 close, yet the market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $1,495, suggesting limited conviction or awareness among traders.
Analysis
Settelmeyer is priced at a substantial 70¢ with over 18 months until the November 2027 close, yet the market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $1,495, suggesting limited conviction or awareness among traders. The asymmetric implied yields—37.9% for Yes versus 109.9% for No—indicate the No side offers significantly higher potential returns, which combined with the wide 7¢ spread, suggests pricing inefficiency in a thinly-traded market. The price has drifted down just 1¢ over the past week in a neutral regime, indicating this is a relatively dormant market awaiting more information about the 2026 Nevada primary landscape.
Resolution rules
If James Settelmeyer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-02R26-JSET yes 100