Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the 8¢ spread. The astronomical 655.5% implied yield on the "No" side and 328% risk-adjusted yield signal severe mispricing—these figures are mathematically inconsistent with rational market pricing and likely reflect the market's inability to function with no trading activity. With 563 days until expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this contract appears abandoned and should not be used for genuine probability assessment of Lee's nomination chances.
Resolution rules
If Susie Lee wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NV-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-03D26-SLEE yes 100