What is the current probability for "Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 186.4% and 186.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity relative to its open interest, with just $18.6 in daily volume against $28.5k OI, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges for larger positions.

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51¢

Bid/Ask 50/51¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $33.72·OI $29,866.31·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXNY12D-26-MLAS

7-day price175 snapshots · 40 regime

51¢50¢ current

Apr 842¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity relative to its open interest, with just $18.6 in daily volume against $28.5k OI, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges for larger positions. The 189% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high for a binary event 201 days out, indicating either significant risk premium or market inefficiency—compounded by 220% realized volatility that dwarfs typical political markets. The neutral regime and modest 7-day price stability (48¢ to 49¢) contrast sharply with the elevated volatility metrics, suggesting the market may be pricing in discrete future information arrival rather than reflecting current uncertainty.

Resolution rules

If Micah Lasher wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 186.4%

IY (No) 186.4%

Adj IY 186%

CRI 1

RV 339%

VR 2.34

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	186.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	186.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	186%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	339%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:11:51 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNY12D-26-MLAS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →